Lions Rebuild

 After my incredible and ground breaking vision in rebuilding the Chicago Bears yesterday, The NFL's reigning GILFOY (Grandmother I'd Like to own my Football team Of the Year) Martha Firestone Ford has also hired me to rebuild the hapless Detroit Lions as a passion project. So here we go folks, I don't even need to fire anyone because Martha already did that.

1. Time to Move on from Matthew Stafford.

    As much as it sucks to move on from the best Quarterback the Lions have had since Bobby Layne, it's probably time for a clean break from all sides. Stafford will be 33 by the start of next season, and with 2 years and $59 Million in cap hit over the next two years, this is probably the last chance to move on from him and recoup anything close to adequate value. Sure, the Lions would only open up $14,000,000 in cap space and would have to eat $19,000,000 in dead cap, but that's definitely better than committing $33,000,000 to a team that's about to begin a rebuild. Stafford is past his prime, and would likely end up being cut after this upcoming year anyway, barring a significant restructuring. I think it's time for both sides to move on. No Detroit fan could possibly be upset with Stafford going to a legitimate contender before his career and body continue to deteriorate before our eyes, and I believe with the upcoming QB Changes, it shouldn't be that unrealistic to expect a late first round pick or an early second round pick for the former pro bowl QB. 

The Patriots, Saints, Steelers, 49ers, Colts, and Buccaneers all have significant question marks at the QB position going forward, an elite roster surrounding them, and none of those franchises are going to be in a position to select a QB towards the top of the draft this year. I don't think any teams would relinquish a first round pick this year for an aging QB, but considering his contract will likely be a bargain once the Lions eat the dead cap, I don't think a second and a third rounder split between this year and next year is that unrealistic. For the sake of the rebuild, let's trade him to the Colts this year for Jacob Eason, a third round pick this year, and a second round pick next year. This removes a massive cap hit, gives the Lions a decent but unspectacular QB with decent potential to fill in as a stop gap, and helps start to rebuild their draft capital. 

2. Try and trade Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Danny Shelton, and Justin Coleman.

    None of the 4 are bad players, in fact, all have played pretty decently this year. But at the same time, all 4 were given relatively bigger contracts than market value indicates from Patricia and Quinn in order to try and save their jobs. None of the contracts are remotely cuttable Pre-June 1st designation, so the best bet in order to save some more cap space is to find a trade partner for a couple of the aging veterans to give more playing time to younger players. Jamie Collins should be relatively movable since the Lions would have to eat a chunk of dead cap to move him, but would still open up some more space and would probably net a 5th or 6th round pick. 

Coleman and Trufant are moveable as well, but Coleman is a bit of a longer term deal which could be a bit of an issue. Trufant is also going to carry a $10,000,000 cap hit to whichever team trades for him, but with it being the last year of his deal, it shouldn't be too hard at all for a contender to extend Trufant out a little bit without sacrificing too much flexibility. Let's say between Shelton, Trufant, and Coleman, the Lions pick up another 4th or 5th round pick and save an extra $15-20,000,000 in cap space. 

Sure, we'd have to eat between $10-15,000,000 in dead cap, but we're an abysmally constructed roster right now, so we'll use our inability to contend next year as an asset to eat dead cap and possibly accrue more assets to continue to open up our books next year. But none of these players are really cuttable, so if we can't unload them, they're sticking around one more year.

3. Marvin Jones, Everson Griffin, Kenny Golladay, and Duron Harmon are free agents: Let them walk.

    As unappealing as it is losing a talent like Kenny Golladay, the former 3rd round pick is due a big contract coming up soon, and with his inability to stay healthy this year, I'd rather let him walk and try and accumulate compensatory picks the following year rather than try and trade him on a franchise tag. The difference between the Bears and Lions predicaments with their WRs are pretty similar, but Allen Robinson is quite a bit better than Golladay and I think it would be easier to find a team willing to sacrifice a valuable draft asset AND give him an extension. Golladay has a few more question marks surrounding him, and is probably a better bet of obtaining value in the compensatory route. 

Marvin Jones and Duron Harmon will both probably get contracts from other teams and Griffin is a dark horse possibility as well. As long as the Lions avoid big money free agents (We will), and instead focus on bargain bin signings of veterans who were cut, we should be able to accumulate somewhere in the ball park of a 3rd and 5th rounder next year, or potentially two 4ths.

 Now that compensatory draft picks are tradeable, it gives us more bullets in the holster to revamp this roster and clear up cap space for when we have the ability to make more moves. It'll suck a bit, but I'd expect Golladay to get a 4-5 year deal in the ballpark of $16-$18,000,000 a year, or a 2-3 year deal worth $22-$24,000,000 a year. Either way, the guarantees will be hefty, and since we're moving on from the Quarterback position, I see no reason to throw hefty guarantees towards a luxury item that will be drastically underutilized comparatively. 

4. Test the market for Kerryon Johnson. 

    Injury prone and a year away from his deal expiring, now would be a good chance to unload him on the cheap to a contender trying to add weapons for another run at a Super Bowl. I think there's a good chance the Lions could get a conditional 5th or 6th rounder depending on his health and how many games he plays, and with Deandre Swift as the new bellcow, I don't want to spend any money extending an injury prone Kerryon Johnson. He could be a good fit to replace Mark Ingram as a bulkier change of pace back with JK Dobbins in Baltimore, or a replacement for the wildly inept Leonard Fournette in Tampa Bay. I think either team would gladly part with a 7th rounder next year that becomes a 6th if Kerryon can play 10-12 games. 

5. Free Agency Of The Bargain Bin Variety:

    We're not going after any big ticket items this free agency after the massive contracts given out by the last regime to save their jobs. We're going to play the long term game and sign very cheap contracts from veterans that were cap casualties. I'd target aging veterans to shore up the depth and provide quality veteran leadership on a team trying to rebuild a culture as well as former highly drafted prospects that didn't pan out. We're going to try and find a couple diamonds in the rough from talented players that were in poor situations and were underutilized or misutilized in their last stop. 

There are plenty of bargain bin success stories, like Shaq Barrett, Jamie Collins, Ndamukong Suh and Robert Quinn who all took extremely team-friendly, short term deals and helped make their organizations significantly better. Players that may become cap casualties, and would in turn, allow them to be signed at a lower number than usual without sacrificing compensatory capital: Brandon Graham, Kareem Jackson, Malik Jackson, Kevin Zeitler, Kawann Short, AJ Bouye, Brandon Williams, and Riley Reiff. None of those players are outstanding, but they're all very solid and getting a couple of them on team friendly deals could help establish a veteran presence for a team that'll have quite a few rookies contributing.

6. Draft: We'll see?

    The Lions are in an incredibly tenuous situation in terms of where they're picking in the upcoming draft. At 4-7, the Lions currently sit in 9th in the draft order, and there's almost no shot of picking in the top 2. So they can pick anywhere from 3rd-16th in my opinion. Based on the remaining schedule, there's a good chance that if the Lions lose on Sunday, they'll lose out. 4-12 should be enough to pick 4th or 5th, while 5-11 could drop them down to the 6-8 range.

 If the Lions have the 4th pick, they should be in position to get one of Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Zach Wilson if Cincinnati remains ahead of them. It would also put the Lions in great position to trade down and accumulate blue chip draft chips now and in the future, before being able to survey the landscape and figure out where they're going at the QB position. 

I wouldn't hate taking a top QB prospect now, but I'd much rather try and get a  bookend corner to play with Jeffrey Okudah. Patrick Surtain looks like an absolute stud and Caleb Farley looks great too. If the Lions win a game or two and aren't in the QB sweepstakes, it wouldn't be the worst thing to grab a defensive lineman/edge rusher, and spend rounds 2 and 3 trying to add young pass catchers to develop for the next franchise quarterback we acquire. Let's just say we get a pass rusher, another solid young corner, and a high upside WR. I'll call that a win. Trade Downs are always a good strategy, but with such a question mark at the Quarterback position, we have to wait and see what we're left with.

7. If we do Trade Down.... Prioritize next year.

    In the case of a trade down in rounds one or two, we're going to put a slightly higher emphasis on getting some draft capital next year. Maybe we've already picked up a pick or two in trades, so after comp picks are tabulated, we should be going in with 11-12 draft selections without trades. So it could be a really good chance to sacrifice a little bit of value now for a lot more next year. That way if we're a quarterback away, we can push some chips in to make sure we acquire our guy.

 And if Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, JT Daniels and Mac Jones aren't our kinda guys, we can roll it over one more year and wait for that draft class. We just can't reach on a guy and set ourselves back even further. At the very least, we'll have a mediocre but average QB and a very strong roster. 

8. Coaching Hires?

    I'm going a little off track, but I'm a big fan of Brian Daboll, especially since we're moving on from Stafford as our long term answer. He was instrumental in the early Patriots dynasty as a wide receivers coach, was the Jets QB Coach for Mark Sanchez's best two years and their AFC Championship game appearances, he was Nick Saban's OC and was the man who pushed for Tua to play, and then he's worked wonders with Josh Allen in Buffalo. Sign me up for Daboll.