Welcome to Hilly Builds, where we're rebuilding every bad team in the NFL. Then maybe we'll work on the good teams, but we'll see how I'm feeling. Thanks to the great TrillWithers for letting me use the homage to him as the name, so lets get started:
The Houston Texans are an absolute dumpster fire. They're 4-7, they're already 13 million over the cap going into next season, and they don't own their own first or second round picks thanks to the Laramie Tunsil trade and the Brandin Cooks trade. We're taking over a really, really tough situation, but there's one thing we do have that no one else in the division has, and something that all but maybe 2 or 3 other teams would kill for: Deshaun Watson.
As long as we have Deshaun, we have hope. Unfortunately, we do have to consider that his contract is going to kick in soon, so we can't just load up on high priced veterans and hope for the best. Make no doubt about it, we're keeping Deshaun Watson. I'll resign before I ship him out of town, but the contract is an unavoidable (and incredibly well deserved) hurdle that we'll have to face as we rebuild this team.
1. Figure out the JJ Watt Dilemma.
JJ Watt was once on track to be one of the greatest defensive players in NFL History. He won 3 defensive player of the year awards by the time he was 26 years old. He led the league in sacks twice, tackles for loss three times, and provided quite a bit of versatility by batting down passes at the line of scrimmage, having 49 pass deflections over a 4 year stretch. He was positionally versatile, which allowed the Texans to out scheme opponents frequently. By all accounts, he was one of the best ever already. Unfortunately that's when the injury bug hit.
After not missing a game in his first 5 seasons, Watt has missed 32 games over the last 4 seasons. The wear and tear of playing at such a physical position at an incredibly elite level has started to take its toll on our iconic superstar. When healthy, he's a fantastic veteran presence and still a high level football player from time to time. But Watt is also worth $32,000,000 over the next 2 years and that's way too much to be paying a 31 year old player with an extensive injury history and declining production when healthy.
We're going to lay out the options so JJ can choose his own decision. We're either going to have to restructure to significantly lower the cap hit over the next two years, and if he decides he doesn't want to spend his remaining years on a bad team, we'll have no problem trading him and his easily cutable contract for whatever value we can get. There's a really good chance we have to outright cut him, but there's no more guarantees on his deal so we can move on scotfree, and I also think a team that has the ability and depth to deploy him less to keep him healthier like the Ravens or Steelers might trade a 5th or 6th round pick. In fact, I'm sure JJ would welcome an opportunity to go to the Steelers and play with his brother TJ. So we take care of one of our all time greats, clear the cap space, get a little bit of draft capital and keep that connection with JJ for when his career is over and I hire him to just hangout around the facility.
2. Get As Many Cheap Assets As Possible.
This one is pretty simple. We're going to have a quarterback on a massive deal soon, and one that we want to build a winner around. So for increased flexibility going forward, we're going to have to get rid of some of the luxury items on this roster for mid and late round picks. Outside of Watson, there's really not anyone on this roster they could even think about getting a first round pick for. Brandin Cooks, Bernadrick McKinney, Duke Johnson, and David Johnson are all pretty solid to good football players that could be worth a lot more to a team that's one or two pieces away from getting over the hump.
They also carry a combined $31,000,000 cap hit, while only having $3,700,000 in dead cap. So if we can't trade them, we can absolutely cut them without much worry. Cooks has been traded for first rounders a couple times, and was just traded for a 2nd rounder. So I think going into the last year of his deal, a 3rd round pick is probably fair value for a 27 year old receiver on the verge of the 5th 1,000 yard season of his career. Between the other 3, I think we could squeeze a 6th rounder out of a team this year, and perhaps a conditional 6th or 7th round pick next year. It's not great value, but holding onto those contracts is going to put us in worse position to build around Watson long term, so it's crucial that we clear the deck.
After trading/cutting Watt, McKinney, Cooks, and the Johnson boys, We clear up approximately $48,500,000 in cap space, and add an extra 3rd, 5th, and 6th round pick this year. That gives us 10 draft choices in the 3rd-7th rounds, but none in the first 2. This is an issue, big time.
3. Gut the roster quickly.
This roster is in really bad shape. The Texans will only make 2 first-round picks between 2017-2021 after trading 2 of them to select Deshaun Watson, and trading 2 of them for Laramie Tunsil. The other selection, OT Tytus Howard, has shown some promise, but hasn't really taken the next step yet. There was a game earlier this year where not a single rookie played a snap, which shows how bad last years draft class was, and how little young talent we have under contract. So this is going to be a full on tear down.
If we can get anything for Whitney Mercilus, we will. He's an aging edge rusher on a bad contract, so if we can eat enough dead money, we might be able to get a little bit of value for him. I'm not sure how likely that will be, but if we don't find a trade partner, we'll probably have to just bite the bullet on him and keep him. Bradley Roby might be able to net us a late round pick going into the last year of his deal, but considering he's an average corner at an above average cap hit, we're probably going to have to cut him to open another $8,500,000. Now we've got about $57-60,000,000 in cap space, a franchise quarterback, a good, but expensive left tackle, and not a whole lot of anything else. There aren't going to be any reliable weapons on this roster so we've got to give Watson something to work with. We're letting Will Fuller leave, because I've got another idea.
4. Free Agency: Take a lot of cheap gambles... Except one.
Free Agency is where we're going to be making a lot of moves. With no blue chip draft capital available, we've got to figure out a way to field this roster in a way that will, at the very least, protect Deshaun Watson for our rebuild. There's one player I'm prepared to give a large, long term contract to, and that's Bears WR Allen Robinson. Robinson has put up gaudy pro bowl numbers during his career with passers like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles getting him the ball. In college, he had Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenberg. There are some injury concerns there, but not nearly as many as Will Fuller or Kenny Golladay and I believe that Robinson is a top 5 wide receiver that's been in terrible situations for most of his career.
At just 27 years old, Robinson is likely just reaching his performative peak, and we want to give Deshaun Watson a go to receiver that he can throw the ball up to. We're giving Robinson a 5 year deal worth $100 Million, but we'll structure the contract so that way it's really only a 4-year deal worth $85,000,000. Robinson gets a massive contract that shows his value among NFL Receivers even though we both know he's getting cut or restructured before that final year, and we get a big time, game breaking receiver at market value. If we have to get into a bidding war for Robinson, so be it. But he's going to be a Texan when it's all said and done.
After we get Robinson signed, now we're going to shift our focus to signing a bunch of team friendly deals with aging veterans, young players who fizzled out in their first stops, and athletic diamonds in the rough that we can potentially uncover from small schools and practice squads.
Players like Solomon Thomas, Corey Davis, John Ross, Hassan Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Charles Harris, and Takk McKinley are all former first round picks that are likely to hit the open market this year after disappointing with their first (and in several cases second and third) team. Hopefully we're able to give some of those younger players some stability and consistent playing time in a low pressure environment, and they blossom. Some of them will continue to stink, but a couple of them could really step it up in a new environment. Ross, Reddick, Davis, Harris and McKinley were taken by the Bengals, Cardinals, Lions, Dolphins, and Falcons. All five of which have since fired the regimes that drafted those players, so I think we can find some bargains.
Mike Iupati, Everson Griffin, Tahir Whitehead, Derek Wolfe, Xavier Rhodes, Lawrence Guy, Logan Ryan, Bruce Irvin, and Danny Amendola are all veterans over the age of 30 that are playing on contracts worth $6,000,000 or less a year. We're going to try and sign a few of these guys to some cheap, team friendly deals to help revitalize their career in the hopes of landing one more big contract. We can even structure the deals in a way that we eat most of the small cap hit this year, which would make them very tradable assets if we're still a year or two away from really getting down to business. I don't really know which of those guys will be getting mid level deals this season, but my point being, there are usually very productive veterans that are cap casualties waiting to be signed to team friendly contracts every offseason. We're going to make sure we get at least 2 veteran corners though, because we need them in the worst way.
Lastly, in terms of the diamonds in the rough, I think we'll try and go after anyone that just put up absurd combine numbers or production from a small school. Or a player that was vastly underutilized on a bad college team with a bad coach. There are quality NFL players on practice squads right now, we're going to do our best to find and polish them. At worst, they get cut at the end of training camp with really no lost cost, but if we can find a productive NFL starter or two, we can really add to the talent pool.
5. Draft: Focus On Undervalued Positions.
Without a pick in the first two rounds this year, there's really no way for us to leapfrog into a spot where we can get an elite impact player at a highly valued position. So we're going to focus our earliest picks on positions where good players slip because it's not as widely valued: we're going after safeties, running backs, ILBs, and Interior DL. I think there's a really good chance that immediate impact players can be acquired in rounds 3 and 4 if you're ok with the fact they don't play a premium position, and are a little more situationally limited. Right now, we're fine with that, because we need an influx of talent all over the place, and if we can start to cobble together a good, young, cheap corps of players to surround Deshaun Watson with, it'll allow us even more versatility in our organization. We'll use our later round picks on wide receivers and corners, essentially hoping to hit a serious lottery ticket. If we don't hit, it's not really an issue. But we need to absolutely make sure that we get at least a couple guys in this draft who can develop nicely. Maybe we even trade down once or twice and get a couple extra late round picks without sacrificing salary cap space.
6. Understand that this is step one, not the conclusion of the rebuild:
Lastly, we need to come to terms with the fact that we're going to have to keep rebuilding this roster regardless of how our season goes. We play in one of the weaker divisions in football historically, and it wouldn't shock me in the least if we're able to go 11-5 and win the division/make the playoffs. As long as we have Deshaun Watson, that's always going to be possible. But it's also important that we understand that volatility with other teams isn't necessarily indicative of where we currently stand, and if the goal is winning a Super Bowl, we can't abandon our longterm plan by signing high priced free agents after the first good season. The goal is still surrounding Watson with cheap, cost controlled talent, so if anything, a good season will actually allow us to trade down in the upcoming drafts without the pressure of having to acquire an immediate playmaker at the top of the draft.
Laramie Tunsil is someone that I would consider moving after this season, but I do think there's a critical importance in keeping our franchise QB safe, so even though we're paying a premium on him, it's a bullet I'm willing to bite so long as he plays well and keeps Deshaun healthy. We just have to understand that next seasons overall results are meaningless, because soon Watsons contract will fully kick in and we'll need the versatility to continue to build the Houston Texans into a super bowl contender.
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